جنبش جمهوری خواهان و لائیک: قضاوت ما عدم اعتماد به کلیت نظام جمهوری اسلامی از جمله به آقای حسن روحانی است

لطفا در صورت امکان از خواندن این اطلاعیه دریغ نکنید.  فردا که دوران ماه عسل به خماری سخت تبدیل شد، بدانیم که جریان مصدقی استقلال و آزادی، بر اصول و عهد خود وفادار ماند و ساعت یازده تغییر مواضع نداد و مانند جریانها و افرادی که نشان دادند که حتی به اصول اعلام شده خود نیز وفادار نیستند و سیاست را نه دکترین ایجاد فرصتها بر ضد قدرت، که در تله فرصتهای ایجاد شده از طرف قدرت افتادن می دانند و در نتیجه مواضعشان را مانند کشتی بی لنگر، افتادن باد قدرت در بادبانهایشان تعیین می کند، هستند جریانهایی که بر سر حقوق مردم و حقوق ملی ایستاده اند و کوه ها از جای بجنبند آنها نمی جنبند و با قدرت مافیایی غاصب حقوق مردم بر سر حقوق مردم ذره ای سازش نمی کنند.

بنظر من، یکی از بهترین نتایج این "انتخابات" این بود که جریان اصلاح طلب، بیشتر در شکل اقای خاتمی، نخست در شکل حمایت از اقای رفسنجانی که ماهیت خود را در مخالفت با فرد و سیاستهای چنین فردی گرفته بود و بعد در حمایت از یک فرد امنیتی دست راستی محافظه کار، ماهیت سخت ماکیاولیست و بی اخلاق خود را بنمایش گذاشت و از طرق ایجاد ترس و وحشت و در نتیجه استفاده ابزرای از هوادارانش و درصد قابل توجهی ( که البته بسیار کمتر از 72% اعلام شده بود.) را به پای صندوقهای رای کشاند.  اینگونه خواهد بود که فضای خاکستری فلج کننده اصلاح طلبی که سپهر سیاسی ایران را بیش از بیست سال است که الوده کرده بود و فرصتهای تاریخی برای تغییرات ساختاری را از بین برده بود و مانع تغییر واقعی در ساختار سیاسی جامعه شده بود با باد واقعیت های روز افزون و احساس فریب ناشی از آن،  به حاشیه رانده خواهد شد و مافیایی حاکم مهمترین خندق دفاعی خود را از دست خواهد داد و اینگونه خواهد بود که مانند سالهای قبل از انقلاب بهمن، هر گونه امیدی از اصلاح از رژیم سلب و تغییر اساسی در گفتمان مبارزه/paradigm shift ایجاد خواهد شد.  انقلاب بهمن، در کانتکست مبارزات 120 ساله وطن، در اندیشه راهنما و اهدافش که همان استقلال بود و آزادی و مردم سالاری و رشدی فقر شکن به انجام خواهد رسید و درخت بیش از یک قرنه مبارزه به بار خواهد نشست: 

اعلامیه گروه ما،  جنبش جمهوری خواهان و لائیک، در رابطه با "انتخابات" ریاست جمهوری:

قضاوت ما عدم اعتماد به کلیت نظام جمهوری اسلامی از جمله به آقای حسن روحانی است

http://www.jjdli.com/fa/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=2219:2013-06-24-09-26-43&catid=112:2012-01-30-21-04-05&Itemid=165

My interview with Sky News about 1979 revolution and the “election"

Last week, I did an interview with Sky News about the 1979 Iranian Revolution, the recent presidential “election” and the reformists, a short version of which has been aired. In it I talked about my experience of the revolution and of the rapidly emerging freedoms which followed it, the confrontation of the dictatorial and democratic fronts over the next two years, and the June 1981 coup against the first president.  Then I talked about the “election”, which more than ever demonstrated the reformists’ Machiavellian approach to politics as they violated all their declared principles and conditions for the sake of power. This led them to rally around a conservative security candidate who was involved in Iran-Gate scandal (1986-87) and supported the bloody suppression of a student uprising in 1999.  I argued that their lack of ethics and short sightedness will soon lead to the disillusionment of their young supporters and thus to the abandonment in the hope of reform, and that the paralysing grey area of reform which has until now prevented uprising for structural change will be lifted.

The analysis was done before the “election”, and those who voted for change, not realizing that no real change can ever take place without removing the absolute power of the supreme leader who has all power but no accountability, are now experiencing a honeymoon. Unfortunately, they do not realize that the hangover will soon kick in.  

As I wrote previously, the real winners of this election were Khamenei and the millions of people who boycotted it.  Khamenei won in one sense by beheading the reformists through prohibiting Khatami and Rafsanjani from running, still, successfully forcing all reformists, from religious, religious nationalists, leftists, and seculars, to give him recognition. From now on they cannot play the opposition card any longer. He succeeded in doing so because, like himself, the reformists also only follow principles of power.  Khamenei won in another sense because he no longer needs to drink the poison chalice of negotiating with Western powers and accepting most of their terms over the nuclear issue. His president will now do it for him and he easily argues that, as people voted for Rouhani, he respect’s people’s votes.

Also, we should not forget, as Profressor Mehran Mostafavi had demonstrated, that the regime has once again rapidly inflated the number of voters, which was even lower than 50%. We remember that once Karubi revealed the regime has a history of doubling the number of votes but used to do it proportionally so that no candidate could complain. Calculating the number of ballot boxes and the opening hours, Professor Mostafavi has shown that the only way the regime’s claim that nearly 37 million people voted can be true is if we accept that the average time for a voter to enter the polling station, cast two votes (one for the president and the other for town council) and leave was 75 seconds, which is unlikey.  He also argues that the percentage of votes for Rouhani was much higher than 50% and that his team might have been right when they were initially saying that his actual percentage was 62%, but the regime, which was counting votes behind closed doors and away from journalists and observers, kept his percentage at around 50%. This is because it was still deciding whether to go to a second round, and finally decided to declare him to be the winner but deprive him of a landslide victory.

Finally, as I argued before the “election”, this show of democracy has helped to remove the grey area of reformism. This is good news for Iranians who are struggling for independence, freedom, democracy, development and social justice. 

http://news.sky.com/story/1102807/iran-election-democracy-or-all-for-show

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N9nK6vuS2M0